Week 5 · Saturday, October 3, 2026
AT NC State
3:30 PM ET · LOU -6 · O/U 60.5
Carter-Finley Stadium
LOUISVILLENC STATE
9.90 #36SP+ projection#58 3.40
35.40 #19SP+ offense#37 31.50
25.70 #66SP+ defense#84 28.00
0.10SP+ special teams-0.10
10.80 #31FPI#58 2.74
#40Strength of schedule#54
35%Returning production60%
740.0Talent composite 2026757.1
9–42025 record8–5
4–42025 conference4–4
9.402025 expected wins7.60
1749.0Elo1605.0
5–32025 at home6–1
3–12025 on the road1–4
85%Returning rushing PPA101%
18%Returning receiving PPA26%
The series
9–4
13 meetings · 1951–2023
last met 2023 · W 13–10
streak: W2
full history →
Ratings are projections and move as the season plays out; the season-to-date numbers below are what has actually happened.
How They Got Here
2026 to date — every game either side has played.
Louisville
2–21–1 in conf.
41.2 scored · 28.8 allowed · +12.5 per game
wk 1L38–41n Ole Miss
wk 2W59–13vs Villanova
wk 3W41–31vs SMU
wk 4L27–30vs Wake Forest
NC State
2–20–1 in conf.
38.2 scored · 25 allowed · +13.2 per game
wk 1L8–34at Virginia
wk 2W73–0vs Richmond
wk 3L31–35at Vanderbilt
wk 4W41–31vs App State
Where The Game Is Won
Each offense against the defense it will actually face, both ranked as FBS percentiles so the bars are comparable. Longer attack bar against a shorter defend bar is the mismatch. 2026 numbers, 4 and 4 games in — small samples, read them lightly.
Louisville offense vs NC State defense
49% · p77Success ratep34 · 43%
Louisville edge — 43 percentile points
1.39 · p85Explosivenessp42 · 1.27
Louisville edge — 43 percentile points
0.33 · p86PPA / playp22 · 0.18
Louisville edge — 64 percentile points
4.39 · p71Points / scoring oppp39 · 3.59
Louisville edge — 32 percentile points
2.75 · p20Line yardsp29 · 3.08
47% · p69Rushing successp10 · 49%
Louisville edge — 59 percentile points
50% · p77Passing successp53 · 40%
NC State offense vs Louisville defense
47% · p70Success ratep40 · 42%
NC State edge — 30 percentile points
1.24 · p49Explosivenessp54 · 1.23
0.20 · p60PPA / playp36 · 0.12
4.68 · p82Points / scoring oppp37 · 3.62
NC State edge — 45 percentile points
3.03 · p41Line yardsp20 · 3.19
44% · p46Rushing successp21 · 46%
52% · p83Passing successp62 · 38%
2026, against the nation
LOUISVILLE2026 national percentileNC STATE
0.486 · p77Off. success ratep70 · 0.469
1.388 · p85Off. explosivenessp49 · 1.244
4.393 · p71Finishing (pts/opp)p82 · 4.679
0.417 · p40Def. success ratep34 · 0.427
1.227 · p54Def. explosivenessp42 · 1.275
0.136 · p23Havocp38 · 0.152
Two programs, five seasons
SP+ by season — the dashed leg is this year's preseason projection.
The series
Recent meetings, by margin
19942023