Week 6 · Friday, October 9, 2026
VS Florida State
7:00 PM ET · line not posted
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
LOUISVILLEFLORIDA STATE
9.90 #36SP+ projection#53 5.70
35.40 #19SP+ offense#35 32.10
25.70 #66SP+ defense#74 26.50
0.10SP+ special teams0.10
10.80 #31FPI#45 6.59
#40Strength of schedule#25
35%Returning production40%
740.0Talent composite 2026800.2
9–42025 record5–7
4–42025 conference2–6
9.402025 expected wins6.50
1749.0Elo1556.0
5–32025 at home5–2
3–12025 on the road0–5
85%Returning rushing PPA28%
18%Returning receiving PPA65%
The series
5–17
22 meetings · 1954–2023
last met 2023 · L 6–16
streak: L2
full history →
Ratings are projections and move as the season plays out; the season-to-date numbers below are what has actually happened.
How They Got Here
2026 to date — every game either side has played.
Louisville
2–21–1 in conf.
41.2 scored · 28.8 allowed · +12.5 per game
wk 1L38–41n Ole Miss
wk 2W59–13vs Villanova
wk 3W41–31vs SMU
wk 4L27–30vs Wake Forest
Florida State
2–20–1 in conf.
32 scored · 25.2 allowed · +6.8 per game
wk 1W34–17vs New Mexico State
wk 1L24–27vs SMU
wk 3L36–50at Alabama
wk 4W34–7vs Central Arkansas
Where The Game Is Won
Each offense against the defense it will actually face, both ranked as FBS percentiles so the bars are comparable. Longer attack bar against a shorter defend bar is the mismatch. 2026 numbers, 4 and 4 games in — small samples, read them lightly.
Louisville offense vs Florida State defense
49% · p77Success ratep22 · 45%
Louisville edge — 55 percentile points
1.39 · p85Explosivenessp17 · 1.39
Louisville edge — 68 percentile points
0.33 · p86PPA / playp7 · 0.26
Louisville edge — 79 percentile points
4.39 · p71Points / scoring oppp42 · 3.52
2.75 · p20Line yardsp32 · 3.07
47% · p69Rushing successp41 · 43%
50% · p77Passing successp14 · 47%
Louisville edge — 63 percentile points
Florida State offense vs Louisville defense
44% · p53Success ratep40 · 42%
1.52 · p97Explosivenessp54 · 1.23
Florida State edge — 43 percentile points
0.26 · p73PPA / playp36 · 0.12
Florida State edge — 37 percentile points
4.88 · p87Points / scoring oppp37 · 3.62
Florida State edge — 50 percentile points
3.23 · p64Line yardsp20 · 3.19
Florida State edge — 44 percentile points
46% · p55Rushing successp21 · 46%
Florida State edge — 34 percentile points
43% · p43Passing successp62 · 38%
Common Opponents
The only comparison that measures both teams against the same football team.
SMUW 41–31 vsL 24–27 vs+13
2026, against the nation
LOUISVILLE2026 national percentileFLORIDA STATE
0.486 · p77Off. success ratep53 · 0.442
1.388 · p85Off. explosivenessp97 · 1.521
4.393 · p71Finishing (pts/opp)p87 · 4.885
0.417 · p40Def. success ratep22 · 0.448
1.227 · p54Def. explosivenessp17 · 1.386
0.136 · p23Havocp41 · 0.156
Two programs, five seasons
SP+ by season — the dashed leg is this year's preseason projection.
The series
Recent meetings, by margin
20002023