The Model

Louisville’s Games

How the model’s last call landed, and where it stands on the next one.

The Slate

Every game the model priced this week. “Book” restates the posted line for whoever the model likes, so the two numbers read straight across — a negative one means the book has the model’s pick as the underdog. The bar shows the gap between them, ticked at the line.

@Western Kentucky @ New Mexico StateLEANThu 8:00 PM10.362%New Mexico State -2.5O/U 56.5 · under by 0.0

@North Texas @ TulsaSOLIDThu 9:00 PM5.872%Tulsa -1.5O/U 57.5 · under by 1.0

@Pittsburgh @ Virginia TechTOSSUPFri 7:00 PM1.657%Virginia Tech -3.5O/U 54.5 · under by 2.8

@Liberty @ DelawareLEANFri 7:00 PM7.060%Liberty -7O/U 49.5 · over by 1.9

@Penn State @ NorthwesternTOSSUPFri 8:00 PM3.455%Penn State -2.5O/U 45.5 · under by 1.6

@Alabama @ Mississippi StateSOLIDSat 12:00 PM9.674%Alabama -6O/U 60.5 · under by 1.8

@Middle Tennessee @ KansasSTRONGSat 12:00 PM22.493%Kansas -18.5O/U 50.5 · over by 1.9

@UCF @ HoustonSTRONGSat 12:00 PM14.186%Houston -12.5O/U 51.5 · under by 1.6

@West Virginia @ Iowa StateLEANSat 12:00 PM6.071%Iowa State -3.5O/U 52.5 · under by 1.4

@Boston College @ SMUSTRONGSat 12:00 PM24.494%SMU -21O/U 56.5 · under by 5.0

@Notre Dame @ North CarolinaSTRONGSat 12:00 PM18.790%Notre Dame -21O/U 47.5 · under by 1.3

@Stanford @ Wake ForestSTRONGSat 12:00 PM15.787%Wake Forest -12.5O/U 53.5 · over by 0.2

@Syracuse @ UConnTOSSUPSat 12:00 PM · line corrected1.148%Syracuse -6.5O/U 50.5 · under by 0.0

@Michigan @ MinnesotaSOLIDSat 12:00 PM11.276%Michigan -5.5O/U 43.5 · under by 2.8

@Navy @ Air ForceSOLIDSat 12:00 PM8.682%Air Force -3.5O/U 46.5 · over by 8.2

@Michigan State @ WisconsinSOLIDSat 12:30 PM11.783%Wisconsin -10.5O/U 43.5 · under by 1.4

@Vanderbilt @ GeorgiaSTRONGSat 12:45 PM · line corrected27.199%Georgia -24.5O/U 50.5 · over by 2.5

@Western Michigan @ BuffaloSOLIDSat 1:00 PM12.677%Western Michigan -13.5O/U 46.5 · under by 2.8

@Toledo @ Ball StateSTRONGSat 2:00 PM21.691%Toledo -19.5O/U 51.5 · over by 2.1

@Florida @ MissouriTOSSUPSat 3:30 PM0.353%Florida -4.5O/U 56.5 · under by 4.7

@Auburn @ TennesseeSOLIDSat 3:30 PM12.284%Tennessee -7O/U 53.5 · under by 8.7

@California @ UNLVTOSSUPSat 3:30 PM0.257%UNLV -2.5O/U 53.5 · under by 3.0

@Louisville @ NC StateTOSSUPSat 3:30 PM2.059%Louisville -5.5O/U 58.5 · under by 1.2

@Virginia @ Florida StateTOSSUPSat 3:30 PM2.058%Virginia -2.5O/U 51.5 · over by 3.9

@Ohio State @ IowaSOLIDSat 3:30 PM9.173%Ohio State -13.5O/U 45.5 · under by 2.5

@Memphis @ CharlotteSTRONGSat 3:30 PM21.491%Memphis -20.5O/U 54.5 · under by 6.7

@Wyoming @ North Dakota StateSTRONGSat 3:30 PM18.693%North Dakota State -18.5O/U 45.5 · under by 0.1

@Akron @ Central MichiganTOSSUPSat 3:30 PM0.257%Central Michigan -6.5O/U 46.5 · under by 2.3

@Eastern Michigan @ MassachusettsLEANSat 3:30 PM5.065%Massachusetts -4.5O/U 48.5 · under by 1.0

@Ohio @ Kent StateSOLIDSat 3:30 PM9.474%Ohio -3O/U 50.5 · over by 1.4

@Bowling Green @ Miami (OH)STRONGSat 3:30 PM19.689%Miami (OH) -13.5O/U 42.5 · over by 0.7

@Old Dominion @ Georgia StateTOSSUPSat 3:30 PM2.258%Georgia State -1.5O/U 50.5 · over by 1.2

@Marshall @ James MadisonSTRONGSat 3:45 PM18.891%James Madison -18.5O/U 55.5 · under by 2.7

@Maryland @ NebraskaSTRONGSat 4:00 PM18.991%Nebraska -14.5O/U 52.5 · over by 1.3

@UTEP @ New MexicoSTRONGSat 4:00 PM26.696%New Mexico -22.5O/U 48.5 · over by 2.5

@Kentucky @ South CarolinaLEANSat 4:15 PM4.263%South Carolina -2.5O/U 53.5 · under by 2.2

@Purdue @ IllinoisSOLIDSat 4:15 PM11.775%Illinois -10O/U 60.5 · under by 2.4

@Oregon State @ Colorado StateSOLIDSat 6:00 PM8.874%Oregon State -6O/U 61.5 · under by 3.7

@Arkansas @ Texas A&MSTRONGSat 7:00 PM17.490%Texas A&M -14O/U 51.5 · under by 0.9

@BYU @ TCUSOLIDSat 7:00 PM10.275%BYU -6.5O/U 48.5 · over by 0.9

@UTSA @ RiceSTRONGSat 7:00 PM15.288%UTSA -11.5O/U 54.5 · under by 4.2

@Georgia Southern @ Coastal CarolinaLEANSat 7:00 PM6.771%Georgia Southern -2.5O/U 54.5 · under by 2.0

@UL Monroe @ South AlabamaSTRONGSat 7:00 PM20.491%South Alabama -14O/U 55.5 · under by 0.5

@Texas Tech @ ColoradoSTRONGSat 7:30 PM13.486%Texas Tech -13.5O/U 50.5 · over by 0.5

@Miami @ ClemsonSTRONGSat 7:30 PM18.188%Miami -16.5O/U 48.5 · under by 0.7

@Washington @ USCSOLIDSat 7:30 PM10.473%USC -9.5O/U 57.5 · under by 3.8

@Utah State @ Boise StateSTRONGSat 7:30 PM16.690%Boise State -19.5O/U 51.5 · over by 0.3

@Temple @ South FloridaSTRONGSat 7:30 PM18.891%South Florida -6O/U 50.5 · over by 3.5

@Army @ Louisiana TechLEANSat 7:30 PM4.762%Army -2.5O/U 46.5 · under by 1.8

@Indiana @ RutgersSTRONGSat 8:00 PM26.992%Indiana -24.5O/U 56.5 · under by 1.8

@Arkansas State @ LouisianaSOLIDSat 8:00 PM10.783%Louisiana -6.5O/U 46.5 · under by 1.0

@Fresno State @ Washington StateLEANSat 9:30 PM4.063%Washington State -2.5O/U 46.5 · under by 5.0

@Baylor @ Arizona StateLEANSat 10:30 PM4.663%Arizona State -4O/U 50.5 · over by 1.5

@Texas State @ San Diego StateTOSSUPSat 10:30 PM7.460%Texas State -4.5O/U 58.5 · under by 0.2

@Cincinnati @ ArizonaSOLIDSat 11:00 PM10.183%Arizona -7O/U 54.5 · over by 2.1

@San José State @ Hawai'iTOSSUPSat 11:59 PM0.258%Hawai'i -2.5O/U 51.5 · over by 0.8

Lines come from CollegeFootballData, not from the model file. 2 of 56 games are marked “line corrected”: the model file shipped a total that disagreed with the book by more than a point, and the book’s number is the one used here.