Week 12 · Saturday, November 21, 2026
VS Pittsburgh
TBD · line not posted
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
LOUISVILLEPITTSBURGH
9.90 #36SP+ projection#20 14.70
35.40 #19SP+ offense#36 32.00
25.70 #66SP+ defense#15 17.40
0.10SP+ special teams0.10
10.80 #31FPI#22 13.46
#40Strength of schedule#119
35%Returning production40%
740.0Talent composite 2026675.0
9–42025 record8–5
4–42025 conference6–2
9.402025 expected wins8.20
1749.0Elo1614.0
5–32025 at home4–3
3–12025 on the road4–1
85%Returning rushing PPA67%
18%Returning receiving PPA24%
The series
11–11
22 meetings · 1976–2025
last met 2025 · W 34–27
streak: W2
full history →
Ratings are projections and move as the season plays out; the season-to-date numbers below are what has actually happened.
How They Got Here
2026 to date — every game either side has played.
Louisville
2–21–1 in conf.
41.2 scored · 28.8 allowed · +12.5 per game
wk 1L38–41n Ole Miss
wk 2W59–13vs Villanova
wk 3W41–31vs SMU
wk 4L27–30vs Wake Forest
Pittsburgh
4–01–0 in conf.
39.2 scored · 8.5 allowed · +30.8 per game
wk 1W59–14vs Miami (OH)
wk 2W12–7vs UCF
wk 3W27–13vs Syracuse
wk 4W59–0vs Bucknell
Where The Game Is Won
Each offense against the defense it will actually face, both ranked as FBS percentiles so the bars are comparable. Longer attack bar against a shorter defend bar is the mismatch. 2026 numbers, 4 and 4 games in — small samples, read them lightly.
Louisville offense vs Pittsburgh defense
49% · p77Success ratep98 · 30%
1.39 · p85Explosivenessp14 · 1.42
Louisville edge — 71 percentile points
0.33 · p86PPA / playp91 · -0.10
4.39 · p71Points / scoring oppp98 · 1.69
2.75 · p20Line yardsp96 · 1.82
Pittsburgh edge — 76 percentile points
47% · p69Rushing successp87 · 32%
50% · p77Passing successp96 · 30%
Pittsburgh offense vs Louisville defense
46% · p68Success ratep40 · 42%
1.34 · p78Explosivenessp54 · 1.23
0.26 · p74PPA / playp36 · 0.12
Pittsburgh edge — 38 percentile points
4.23 · p60Points / scoring oppp37 · 3.62
3.18 · p59Line yardsp20 · 3.19
Pittsburgh edge — 39 percentile points
46% · p62Rushing successp21 · 46%
Pittsburgh edge — 41 percentile points
47% · p64Passing successp62 · 38%
2026, against the nation
LOUISVILLE2026 national percentilePITTSBURGH
0.486 · p77Off. success ratep68 · 0.463
1.388 · p85Off. explosivenessp78 · 1.344
4.393 · p71Finishing (pts/opp)p60 · 4.233
0.417 · p40Def. success ratep98 · 0.297
1.227 · p54Def. explosivenessp14 · 1.418
0.136 · p23Havocp65 · 0.179
Two programs, five seasons
SP+ by season — the dashed leg is this year's preseason projection.
The series
Recent meetings, by margin
20072025