Week 11 · Saturday, November 14, 2026
AT North Carolina
TBD · line not posted
Kenan Stadium
LOUISVILLENORTH CAROLINA
9.90 #36SP+ projection#60 3.00
35.40 #19SP+ offense#88 23.90
25.70 #66SP+ defense#34 21.20
0.10SP+ special teams0.30
10.80 #31FPI#52 5.28
#40Strength of schedule#52
35%Returning production28%
740.0Talent composite 2026767.9
9–42025 record4–8
4–42025 conference2–6
9.402025 expected wins5.10
1749.0Elo1320.0
5–32025 at home2–4
3–12025 on the road2–4
85%Returning rushing PPA54%
18%Returning receiving PPA33%
The series
5–3
8 meetings · 1988–2017
last met 2017 · W 47–35
streak: W2
full history →
Ratings are projections and move as the season plays out; the season-to-date numbers below are what has actually happened.
How They Got Here
2026 to date — every game either side has played.
Louisville
2–21–1 in conf.
41.2 scored · 28.8 allowed · +12.5 per game
wk 1L38–41n Ole Miss
wk 2W59–13vs Villanova
wk 3W41–31vs SMU
wk 4L27–30vs Wake Forest
North Carolina
2–10–1 in conf.
23.3 scored · 13.7 allowed · +9.7 per game
wk 1W15–10n TCU
wk 2W35–3vs East Tennessee State
wk 3L20–28at Clemson
Where The Game Is Won
Each offense against the defense it will actually face, both ranked as FBS percentiles so the bars are comparable. Longer attack bar against a shorter defend bar is the mismatch. 2026 numbers, 4 and 3 games in — small samples, read them lightly.
Louisville offense vs North Carolina defense
49% · p77Success ratep56 · 39%
1.39 · p85Explosivenessp92 · 1.05
0.33 · p86PPA / playp77 · -0.03
4.39 · p71Points / scoring oppp79 · 2.69
2.75 · p20Line yardsp41 · 2.95
47% · p69Rushing successp40 · 43%
50% · p77Passing successp70 · 37%
North Carolina offense vs Louisville defense
50% · p83Success ratep40 · 42%
North Carolina edge — 43 percentile points
1.01 · p2Explosivenessp54 · 1.23
Louisville edge — 52 percentile points
0.12 · p40PPA / playp36 · 0.12
4.00 · p53Points / scoring oppp37 · 3.62
4.02 · p99Line yardsp20 · 3.19
North Carolina edge — 79 percentile points
58% · p96Rushing successp21 · 46%
North Carolina edge — 75 percentile points
43% · p43Passing successp62 · 38%
2026, against the nation
LOUISVILLE2026 national percentileNORTH CAROLINA
0.486 · p77Off. success ratep83 · 0.503
1.388 · p85Off. explosivenessp2 · 1.009
4.393 · p71Finishing (pts/opp)p53 · 4
0.417 · p40Def. success ratep56 · 0.392
1.227 · p54Def. explosivenessp92 · 1.049
0.136 · p23Havocp28 · 0.141
Two programs, five seasons
SP+ by season — the dashed leg is this year's preseason projection.
The series
Recent meetings, by margin
19882017