Week 5 · Saturday, October 3, 2026
AT NC State
3:30 PM ET · LOU -6 · O/U 60.5
Carter-Finley Stadium
Who wins? Three opinions
Louisville favored
The sources disagree by 26 points — someone is wrong.
Model is ours · CFBD is the data provider's · market is implied from the spread (an estimate, not a quote).
The Projection
the model →What the model makes of this one, against the number the books posted.
Projected
NC State by 2.0
tossup · 59% confident · projects 57.3 combined
kick Sat 3:30 PM ET
Win probability
LOU 41%59% NC STATE
vs the market
Louisville -5.5 · O/U 58.5
spread edge +7.5 vs the book
total: UNDER by 1.2
line via DraftKings
Model v1.15. Projections are not betting advice — the model beats an Elo baseline straight up but does not beat the closing line against the spread.