Week 7 · Saturday, October 17, 2026
AT Syracuse
TBD · line not posted
JMA Wireless Dome
LOUISVILLESYRACUSE
9.90 #36SP+ projection#74 -1.20
35.40 #19SP+ offense#97 22.60
25.70 #66SP+ defense#51 24.10
0.10SP+ special teams0.30
10.80 #31FPI#63 0.56
#40Strength of schedule#57
35%Returning production35%
740.0Talent composite 2026745.6
9–42025 record3–9
4–42025 conference1–7
9.402025 expected wins2.80
1749.0Elo1182.0
5–32025 at home2–4
3–12025 on the road1–4
85%Returning rushing PPA-19%
18%Returning receiving PPA20%
The series
13–8
21 meetings · 1985–2022
last met 2022 · L 7–31
streak: L1
full history →
Ratings are projections and move as the season plays out; the season-to-date numbers below are what has actually happened.
How They Got Here
2026 to date — every game either side has played.
Louisville
2–21–1 in conf.
41.2 scored · 28.8 allowed · +12.5 per game
wk 1L38–41n Ole Miss
wk 2W59–13vs Villanova
wk 3W41–31vs SMU
wk 4L27–30vs Wake Forest
Syracuse
1–20–2 in conf.
32.3 scored · 17 allowed · +15.3 per game
wk 1W66–3vs New Hampshire
wk 2L18–21vs California
wk 3L13–27at Pittsburgh
Where The Game Is Won
Each offense against the defense it will actually face, both ranked as FBS percentiles so the bars are comparable. Longer attack bar against a shorter defend bar is the mismatch. 2026 numbers, 4 and 3 games in — small samples, read them lightly.
Louisville offense vs Syracuse defense
49% · p77Success ratep60 · 39%
1.39 · p85Explosivenessp90 · 1.08
0.33 · p86PPA / playp82 · -0.05
4.39 · p71Points / scoring oppp78 · 2.75
2.75 · p20Line yardsp78 · 2.52
Syracuse edge — 58 percentile points
47% · p69Rushing successp25 · 45%
Louisville edge — 44 percentile points
50% · p77Passing successp93 · 32%
Syracuse offense vs Louisville defense
40% · p21Success ratep40 · 42%
1.34 · p76Explosivenessp54 · 1.23
0.04 · p17PPA / playp36 · 0.12
3.54 · p33Points / scoring oppp37 · 3.62
2.99 · p36Line yardsp20 · 3.19
46% · p58Rushing successp21 · 46%
Syracuse edge — 37 percentile points
36% · p11Passing successp62 · 38%
Louisville edge — 51 percentile points
2026, against the nation
LOUISVILLE2026 national percentileSYRACUSE
0.486 · p77Off. success ratep21 · 0.396
1.388 · p85Off. explosivenessp76 · 1.343
4.393 · p71Finishing (pts/opp)p33 · 3.538
0.417 · p40Def. success ratep60 · 0.386
1.227 · p54Def. explosivenessp90 · 1.079
0.136 · p23Havocp77 · 0.186
Two programs, five seasons
SP+ by season — the dashed leg is this year's preseason projection.
The series
Recent meetings, by margin
20102022