Week 9 · Saturday, October 31, 2026
VS Stanford
TBD · line not posted
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
LOUISVILLESTANFORD
9.90 #36SP+ projection#102 -8.40
35.40 #19SP+ offense#98 22.30
25.70 #66SP+ defense#98 30.30
0.10SP+ special teams-0.30
10.80 #31FPI#92 -5.73
#40Strength of schedule#14
35%Returning production21%
740.0Talent composite 2026705.8
9–42025 record4–8
4–42025 conference3–5
9.402025 expected wins4.50
1749.0Elo1335.0
5–32025 at home4–2
3–12025 on the road0–6
85%Returning rushing PPA135%
18%Returning receiving PPA31%
The series
0–1
1 meeting · 2024–2024
last met 2024 · L 35–38
streak: L1
full history →
Ratings are projections and move as the season plays out; the season-to-date numbers below are what has actually happened.
How They Got Here
2026 to date — every game either side has played.
Louisville
2–21–1 in conf.
41.2 scored · 28.8 allowed · +12.5 per game
wk 1L38–41n Ole Miss
wk 2W59–13vs Villanova
wk 3W41–31vs SMU
wk 4L27–30vs Wake Forest
Stanford
2–21–2 in conf.
21 scored · 33.5 allowed · -12.5 per game
wk 1W37–27vs Hawai'i
wk 1L6–45vs Miami
wk 3L7–35at Duke
wk 4W34–27vs Georgia Tech
Where The Game Is Won
Each offense against the defense it will actually face, both ranked as FBS percentiles so the bars are comparable. Longer attack bar against a shorter defend bar is the mismatch. 2026 numbers, 4 and 4 games in — small samples, read them lightly.
Louisville offense vs Stanford defense
49% · p77Success ratep11 · 46%
Louisville edge — 66 percentile points
1.39 · p85Explosivenessp22 · 1.37
Louisville edge — 63 percentile points
0.33 · p86PPA / playp4 · 0.29
Louisville edge — 82 percentile points
4.39 · p71Points / scoring oppp4 · 5.00
Louisville edge — 67 percentile points
2.75 · p20Line yardsp12 · 3.32
47% · p69Rushing successp7 · 49%
Louisville edge — 62 percentile points
50% · p77Passing successp22 · 45%
Louisville edge — 55 percentile points
Stanford offense vs Louisville defense
41% · p32Success ratep40 · 42%
1.29 · p62Explosivenessp54 · 1.23
0.21 · p62PPA / playp36 · 0.12
3.26 · p21Points / scoring oppp37 · 3.62
2.73 · p20Line yardsp20 · 3.19
43% · p38Rushing successp21 · 46%
40% · p30Passing successp62 · 38%
Louisville edge — 32 percentile points
2026, against the nation
LOUISVILLE2026 national percentileSTANFORD
0.486 · p77Off. success ratep32 · 0.413
1.388 · p85Off. explosivenessp62 · 1.286
4.393 · p71Finishing (pts/opp)p21 · 3.261
0.417 · p40Def. success ratep11 · 0.463
1.227 · p54Def. explosivenessp22 · 1.371
0.136 · p23Havocp14 · 0.128
Two programs, five seasons
SP+ by season — the dashed leg is this year's preseason projection.