Week 10 · Saturday, November 7, 2026
AT Georgia Tech
TBD · line not posted
Bobby Dodd Stadium
LOUISVILLEGEORGIA TECH
9.90 #36SP+ projection#69 -0.10
35.40 #19SP+ offense#66 26.60
25.70 #66SP+ defense#76 26.90
0.10SP+ special teams0.20
10.80 #31FPI#66 0.00
#40Strength of schedule#69
35%Returning production13%
740.0Talent composite 2026751.6
9–42025 record9–4
4–42025 conference6–2
9.402025 expected wins7.70
1749.0Elo1595.0
5–32025 at home5–1
3–12025 on the road4–1
85%Returning rushing PPA35%
18%Returning receiving PPA11%
The series
2–2
4 meetings · 2018–2024
last met 2024 · W 31–19
streak: W2
full history →
Ratings are projections and move as the season plays out; the season-to-date numbers below are what has actually happened.
How They Got Here
2026 to date — every game either side has played.
Louisville
2–21–1 in conf.
41.2 scored · 28.8 allowed · +12.5 per game
wk 1L38–41n Ole Miss
wk 2W59–13vs Villanova
wk 3W41–31vs SMU
wk 4L27–30vs Wake Forest
Georgia Tech
1–30–1 in conf.
27 scored · 26 allowed · +1 per game
wk 1L13–14vs Colorado
wk 2L24–45vs Tennessee
wk 3W44–11vs Mercer
wk 4L27–34at Stanford
Where The Game Is Won
Each offense against the defense it will actually face, both ranked as FBS percentiles so the bars are comparable. Longer attack bar against a shorter defend bar is the mismatch. 2026 numbers, 4 and 4 games in — small samples, read them lightly.
Louisville offense vs Georgia Tech defense
49% · p77Success ratep36 · 42%
Louisville edge — 41 percentile points
1.39 · p85Explosivenessp41 · 1.28
Louisville edge — 44 percentile points
0.33 · p86PPA / playp18 · 0.19
Louisville edge — 68 percentile points
4.39 · p71Points / scoring oppp34 · 3.65
Louisville edge — 37 percentile points
2.75 · p20Line yardsp34 · 3.04
47% · p69Rushing successp14 · 47%
Louisville edge — 55 percentile points
50% · p77Passing successp74 · 37%
Georgia Tech offense vs Louisville defense
45% · p63Success ratep40 · 42%
1.25 · p49Explosivenessp54 · 1.23
0.16 · p49PPA / playp36 · 0.12
3.39 · p27Points / scoring oppp37 · 3.62
3.28 · p67Line yardsp20 · 3.19
Georgia Tech edge — 47 percentile points
47% · p68Rushing successp21 · 46%
Georgia Tech edge — 47 percentile points
45% · p52Passing successp62 · 38%
2026, against the nation
LOUISVILLE2026 national percentileGEORGIA TECH
0.486 · p77Off. success ratep63 · 0.453
1.388 · p85Off. explosivenessp49 · 1.245
4.393 · p71Finishing (pts/opp)p27 · 3.393
0.417 · p40Def. success ratep36 · 0.424
1.227 · p54Def. explosivenessp41 · 1.277
0.136 · p23Havocp48 · 0.16
Two programs, five seasons
SP+ by season — the dashed leg is this year's preseason projection.
The series
Recent meetings, by margin
20182024